Day 7 – Seeing Red

No doubt by now anyone interested in this topic would know the big news. Puea Thai (Red Shirts) has surprisingly won a indisputably decisive victory, claiming 261 out of 500 seats. Yingluck now looks to become the first female Prime Minister of Thailand. I was at the PT headquarters yesterday, sandwiched amongst journalists, camera operators, bloggers and red shirts supporters. The excitement kicked off at about 3pm when the results of the Exit Poll showed that Peau had over 300 seats. Though not accurate, the writing was on the wall for the Democrats and the Red shirts started gathering in force to celebrate. Many of them had been supporting the reds since Thaksin was ousted in the 2006 army coup.

When the lady herself arrived in her car outside the OAI Tower (the Party HQ) the crowd and the press went into a frenzy, immediately mobbing her and her entourage as they exited their vehicles and shoved their way towards the building. At times it looked like the crowd would descend into chaos, especially going up the stairs with many of the top-heavy camera operators swayed like they were about to topple over backwards. After 5 excruciating minutes Yingluck’s entourage made it into the elevator taking them up and away from the trigger-happy crowd.

Their champion safe upstairs, the red shirts gathered around the various flat screen TVs set up for the occasion. The atmosphere grew increasingly festive as the official results started rolling in and by evening hundreds of Red Shirts were gathered outside cheering and chanting ‘Yingluck! Nai Yok!’, Yingluck! Prime Minister! Many of the supporters came from the rural Issan province and they started playing traditional music and dancing. It was infectious; a few of the foreign journalists were even pulled reluctantly into the mix.

Yingluck is not only the first female Prime Minister, but also the youngest and probably the least experienced, never having held a public office prior to the election. This was made clear to me yesterday at about 10pm when she came out to address her adoring fans. Before her were 3 veteran members of her party who worked the crowd and spoke at length about their policies and intent. Each spoke for about 20 minutes, constantly assuring the crowd and the foreign press that Yingluck was held up by interviews and would come down as soon as she can. The hours wore on but it didn’t curb the people’s enthusiasm and when she finally came down she was baptized by a firestorm of camera flashes, turning her into an incandescent angelic figure with hands held together to wai the crowd.

Yes, she is beautiful, yes, she is friendly but when she spoke she lacked the commanding presence that one would expect of a future PM and it was very, very brief. The crowd didn’t seem to care though and they hung on her every word and roared with approval at every syllable.

Yingluck’s appointment was a stroke of genius. Whatever her brother had done, however inexperience she is, the Thai people wanted change and nothing can be more different than this woman with her brilliant smile and perfect skin.

Perhaps another point to consider is that the Army would be far more hesitant to take down a public figure who has endeared herself to the masses and the world media so quickly. Certainly any move to oust her now would be PR disaster for Thailand and would provoke some serious reaction from the people.

Make no mistake though, she is a puppet for her brother whose image was depicted on flags and badges worn proudly by many of the red shirt supports. The democrats have already vowed to oppose any move to grant Thaksin amnesty, but they are a minority and stopping Thaksin democratically may not be an option.

Day 6 - Countdown

I shot the prime minister today. Obviously with the video camera otherwise I wouldn’t be writing this blog. I was in Siam getting some interviews when there was a huge commotions and lots of people shouting out ‘Democrats!’. I ran over to see the fuss and lo and behold the man himself Abhisit Vejjajiva, surrounded by his entourage and dozens of democrat supporters in full campaign mood. Infants were held, autograph signed, elderly woman spoken to, the public responded positively, people flocked over to see him, armed with phones and cameras held high in the air taking pictures. Girls were giggling just being near him and many seemed truly star-struck at the sight of the incumbent Prime Minster. I took the opportunity to get close as well, filming all the way and getting an autograph. Ahbisit projected and air of calm and control, things have been looking up the last 24 hours. Most of the minor parties are more willing to form a coalition with the Democrats than Peau Thai so unless the Reds can score over 251 seats then it would likely mean a second term for him.

The fate of the nation will be decided tomorrow. Polls close at 3pm and the official announcement is expected to be tomorrow night at around 9pm. However the exit poll results will come out much earlier.

I’m planning on basing myself at the Peau Thai headquarters tomorrow. Win or lose it should be where the action is. The Reds losing the election could see Bangkok erupting in mass protest, but on other hand winning might provoke the army to step in. Those are worst case scenarios, both parties are promising to respect the outcome of the election. We can only wait and see.

Day 4 - Stormy Skies

It’s the wet season in Thailand. So far it’s been rain and lightning for the last 3 days here in Bangkok. Not that it has been torrential pouring, more like frequent but brief spells. The real storm of course is the political one that is going to reach a climax within the next few days. I spoke with Mr. Chavarong Limpattamapanee, the President of the Thai Journalists Association to discuss a few possible post-election scenarios. Essentially it comes down whether the populist Peua Thai Party lead by the photogenic Yingluck will get enough support to have a majority government, that is, winning more than 250 of the possible 500 seats. Peua Thai is already expected to win the most seats, but that’s out of 40 (that’s right 40) political parties, and many of the minor parties are more likely to form a coalition government with Abhisit’s democrats.

Being the most popular party doesn’t necessarily mean Yingluck will be Prime Minister, it would more likely mean a hung parliament and some serious negotiations in which the minor parties will play a vital role.

Peau Thai getting the majority would mean the smoothest road to government, unless of course the army decides otherwise and throws another one of their world famous coups – or the Yellow shirts rising up in mass protest like the last time the Reds won.

The latter scenario is unlikely as the Yellow shirts have fragmented into near irrelevance this time round. Their ‘No Vote’ campaign (pictured) is amusing but is seen as unhelpful by most of the population. Rightly so, the yellows asking people to vote 'No' (as opposed to not voting at all) to express their anger at the government is not going to solve Thailand's problems.

The army though remains the real threat to Yingluck and the Reds. So far they have said they will do nothing and respect the law. The problem is that the law and the interpretations of it is a point of contention it itself.

Bangkok Post : The real meaning of reconciliation

Bangkok Post : The real meaning of reconciliation
At last a real discussion on what it will take to move forward.  Let us hope that those that are running for office are listening. 

How to interpret the ‘no vote’ in the Thai election? | Asian Correspondent

How to interpret the ‘no vote’ in the Thai election? | Asian Correspondent
This campaign by PAD is more evidence that they have migrated to the fringe of the political discourse.  How can they be taken seriously?  They have even abandoned their own political party, reasoning that anyone involved in the political process in corrupt.  

Election outlook in the deep South

Election outlook in the deep South

What is more interesting is what happens after the election and on a grassroots level, what can they expect from their representatives.

Lucas in transit

My associate on this exploration of Thailand and democracy, Lucas, is on his way to Thailand.  While he was enduring a long layover in KL, he sent me a few of the thoughts he was having about this journey to post on our blog:

Day 0 – in transit

A quick math has revealed that I am going to be spending twice as long waiting in airports as I am going to be in flight.  I am now pointlessly debating whether an extra couple of hundred dollars was really worth losing a day to transit. Ever the optimist though I’m convincing myself that an overnight stop in Kuala Lumpur might just be what I need before taking on Bangkok in the full swing of yet another controversial election.

To pass the time I guess I’d like to give you little background about myself and the situation. I was born in Thailand but have spent the last 20 years of my life in Australia. I’m on a tourist visa, my Thai vocabulary is the equivalent of a seven year old’s, same goes for my tolerance for chillies and right now I’m trying to remember all the customs and traditions taken very seriously by all true Thais.

Foremost amongst the faux pas foreigners are prone to making is to insult the king or the royal institution. Stepping on Money, showing the bottom of your feet to his image and speaking ill of him could land you 15 years behind bars. Heck, just me writing about it could get me in trouble.

So let me just clarify my position that I love the King and what he represents, and right now, just as it has been for all my life, he is the stabilising factors in Thailand. Foreigners have a hard time understanding why Thais revered his Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej. They are more accustom to the tabloid scandals of the British royal family and the constant barrage of jokes directed at them. Things are different in Thailand though, a combination of propaganda, punitive laws  and the fact that he is actually a good guy (he even played the sax with Bill Clinton once) means that he is practically a living saint.

For all his popularity though, it is fair to questions just how much power he actually has to influence the squabbling politicians and there remains the issue of his age and health. Few Thais are willing to contemplate a country without him, but as Buddhist we must be prepared to face this inescapable eventuality.

Like me, Thailand is in transit. Change is coming and no matter how strongly the old institutions will strive to stem it, it is inevitable. For the gloss and postcard images, Thailand is a developing country, and right now we are reaching a crucial turning point.  The exploited masses are rising up, they need a voice, maybe they’ll find it in the exiled Prime Minister, or his younger sister who is currently the favourite to win the election. Maybe the current ruling government will stay in power by winning them over. No matter what happens, it would be interesting to see if they would really be listened to this time.

Abhisit's 'special treatment' at forum upsets other participants

Abhisit's 'special treatment' at forum upsets other participants
This was a good opportunity to address issues and discern the differences among the parties but because of arrogance and lack of respect that the Democrats show for other parties, coupled with the petty bickering and whinging displayed by the other parties in response, here was another fail attempt at open political discussion.

Bangkok Post : Parties dismiss Democrat 'revelations'

Bangkok Post : Parties dismiss Democrat 'revelations'
This hardly constitutes a move toward reconciliation.  Just more political grandstanding and provocations by the major parties.

Helping the South doesn't help those in power

Helping the South doesn't help those in power
There are many good points raised in this article and maybe a key to finding a solution, but are the politicians willing to take the necessary steps to addressing the real issues here.

Pheu Thai not to sling mud at Democrats: Natthawut

Pheu Thai not to sling mud at Democrats: Natthawut
It is good that this does not end up being a war of words but pursuing legal action is more or less the same thing. Better to move on and focus on the issues.

Thailand’s Democrat Party rally: Reclaiming (the truth about) Rajaprasong | Asian Correspondent

Thailand’s Democrat Party rally: Reclaiming (the truth about) Rajaprasong | Asian Correspondent
There was little evidence of reconciliation at this rally, just politics as usual and more finger pointing.

Don't rule out possibility of a third candidate for Thai PM

Don't rule out possibility of a third candidate for Thai PM: "The probability isn't that high, but the possibility of a third candidate for the premiership after the July 3 Thailand election can't be totally ruled out. Pheu Thai is poised to beat the Democrats. .....

"
Even though the Pheu Thai is poised to take the majority of seats it still does not give them a clear mandate to rule.  Will the solution come from a third party?

What will the U.S. Reaction Be to Thailand’s Election?

What will the U.S. Reaction Be to Thailand’s Election?
As is always the case this is the elephant in the room and given how much this region counts on a stable Thailand, everyone is watching these elections with some amount of trepidation.

Avoid Ratchaprasong, reds told

Avoid Ratchaprasong, reds told
Let's hope they take this to heart, even though this rally seems like a provocation, I am hoping that they listen to their leaders and stay away. 

Rally 'not just to woo voters'

Rally 'not just to woo voters'
Let's hope that there is some sincerity in this obviously political stunt.  If this is the case then it should not have been advertised as a political rally but an open forum with invitations to the other party to participate.  I know they want to look like they are taking the high road but from all the political rhetoric of late, this appears to be more of the same.  I will try and keep an open mind and hope for the best. 

Bangkok Post : Rally incenses relatives of Ratchaprasong dead

Bangkok Post : Rally incenses relatives of Ratchaprasong dead
This could be incredibly insensitive or a sincere attempt to heal old wounds, either way I don't think it will achieve the desired results.  It has all the earmarks of politics as usual and it is not surprising that it is view as being provocative.  There could have been a better way of handling this. 

PAD to petition for Pheu Thai disbandment

PAD to petition for Pheu Thai disbandment
As the time draws closer to the election, we should be seeing more statements like this. It remains to be seen when the 'Yellow Shirts' will hit the street with any significant numbers and if they will be able to rally any support.

Politics only part of the problem in the deep South

Politics only part of the problem in the deep South: "If Thailand's modern political history proves anything, it is that no one party has ever single-handedly captured the hearts and souls of the Malay Muslims in the three southernmost provinces of Patta .....

"
This is an in-depth analysis on the problems that face the political parties in bring peace to the south. It is a difficult task and no one has come up with a workable solution.

'Invisible hand' throttles our democracy

'Invisible hand' throttles our democracy
This is a chilling indictment of the Thai democratic process. It also makes us wonder if the results of the election will be allowed to stand.