Day 7 – Seeing Red

No doubt by now anyone interested in this topic would know the big news. Puea Thai (Red Shirts) has surprisingly won a indisputably decisive victory, claiming 261 out of 500 seats. Yingluck now looks to become the first female Prime Minister of Thailand. I was at the PT headquarters yesterday, sandwiched amongst journalists, camera operators, bloggers and red shirts supporters. The excitement kicked off at about 3pm when the results of the Exit Poll showed that Peau had over 300 seats. Though not accurate, the writing was on the wall for the Democrats and the Red shirts started gathering in force to celebrate. Many of them had been supporting the reds since Thaksin was ousted in the 2006 army coup.

When the lady herself arrived in her car outside the OAI Tower (the Party HQ) the crowd and the press went into a frenzy, immediately mobbing her and her entourage as they exited their vehicles and shoved their way towards the building. At times it looked like the crowd would descend into chaos, especially going up the stairs with many of the top-heavy camera operators swayed like they were about to topple over backwards. After 5 excruciating minutes Yingluck’s entourage made it into the elevator taking them up and away from the trigger-happy crowd.

Their champion safe upstairs, the red shirts gathered around the various flat screen TVs set up for the occasion. The atmosphere grew increasingly festive as the official results started rolling in and by evening hundreds of Red Shirts were gathered outside cheering and chanting ‘Yingluck! Nai Yok!’, Yingluck! Prime Minister! Many of the supporters came from the rural Issan province and they started playing traditional music and dancing. It was infectious; a few of the foreign journalists were even pulled reluctantly into the mix.

Yingluck is not only the first female Prime Minister, but also the youngest and probably the least experienced, never having held a public office prior to the election. This was made clear to me yesterday at about 10pm when she came out to address her adoring fans. Before her were 3 veteran members of her party who worked the crowd and spoke at length about their policies and intent. Each spoke for about 20 minutes, constantly assuring the crowd and the foreign press that Yingluck was held up by interviews and would come down as soon as she can. The hours wore on but it didn’t curb the people’s enthusiasm and when she finally came down she was baptized by a firestorm of camera flashes, turning her into an incandescent angelic figure with hands held together to wai the crowd.

Yes, she is beautiful, yes, she is friendly but when she spoke she lacked the commanding presence that one would expect of a future PM and it was very, very brief. The crowd didn’t seem to care though and they hung on her every word and roared with approval at every syllable.

Yingluck’s appointment was a stroke of genius. Whatever her brother had done, however inexperience she is, the Thai people wanted change and nothing can be more different than this woman with her brilliant smile and perfect skin.

Perhaps another point to consider is that the Army would be far more hesitant to take down a public figure who has endeared herself to the masses and the world media so quickly. Certainly any move to oust her now would be PR disaster for Thailand and would provoke some serious reaction from the people.

Make no mistake though, she is a puppet for her brother whose image was depicted on flags and badges worn proudly by many of the red shirt supports. The democrats have already vowed to oppose any move to grant Thaksin amnesty, but they are a minority and stopping Thaksin democratically may not be an option.

Day 4 - Stormy Skies

It’s the wet season in Thailand. So far it’s been rain and lightning for the last 3 days here in Bangkok. Not that it has been torrential pouring, more like frequent but brief spells. The real storm of course is the political one that is going to reach a climax within the next few days. I spoke with Mr. Chavarong Limpattamapanee, the President of the Thai Journalists Association to discuss a few possible post-election scenarios. Essentially it comes down whether the populist Peua Thai Party lead by the photogenic Yingluck will get enough support to have a majority government, that is, winning more than 250 of the possible 500 seats. Peua Thai is already expected to win the most seats, but that’s out of 40 (that’s right 40) political parties, and many of the minor parties are more likely to form a coalition government with Abhisit’s democrats.

Being the most popular party doesn’t necessarily mean Yingluck will be Prime Minister, it would more likely mean a hung parliament and some serious negotiations in which the minor parties will play a vital role.

Peau Thai getting the majority would mean the smoothest road to government, unless of course the army decides otherwise and throws another one of their world famous coups – or the Yellow shirts rising up in mass protest like the last time the Reds won.

The latter scenario is unlikely as the Yellow shirts have fragmented into near irrelevance this time round. Their ‘No Vote’ campaign (pictured) is amusing but is seen as unhelpful by most of the population. Rightly so, the yellows asking people to vote 'No' (as opposed to not voting at all) to express their anger at the government is not going to solve Thailand's problems.

The army though remains the real threat to Yingluck and the Reds. So far they have said they will do nothing and respect the law. The problem is that the law and the interpretations of it is a point of contention it itself.

'No policy to give Thaksin amnesty'

'No policy to give Thaksin amnesty'
Maybe Thaksin doesn't have such a firm handle on his sister.

New York Times on Yingluck and Thai election | Asian Correspondent

New York Times on Yingluck and Thai election | Asian Correspondent
I enjoy reading what BP has to say. He come across as a very astute but impartial observer.

Pheu Thai's risky one-upmanship

Pheu Thai's risky one-upmanship
This may be a time to re-think some of the wilder promises. I don't see them as resonating with their core constituency and any attempt to buy votes should be a bit more pragmatic. It is doubtful they will be able to deliver on half these promises.

Bangkok Post : Yingluck hopes Dems constructive

Bangkok Post : Yingluck hopes Dems constructive
Yingluck seems to be taking the high road. This tact may help sway some of the undecided voters who are not impressed by the more provocative campaign that the Democrats are running.

Yingluck promises peace in South

Yingluck promises peace in South
Yingluck and the PTP are eager to make a good impression in the south and this could be a key decider for them if they are able to make any inroads in the area.  There has be an increase in insurgency of late and this has been a sore point for many previous governments.  Thaksin had a particularly heavy handed approach which could work against Yingluck unless she is able to heal old wounds.

The Pheu Thai Party

The Pheu Thai Party or For Thais Party would be described as the third incarnation of Thakin Shinawatra's Thai Rak Thai party.  That party and the seceding People's Power Party were both dissolved by the Constitutional Court.  Pracha Promnok has been in opposition to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajaiva's coalition government until May, when Jarupong Ruangsuwan was named Secretary general of the party.  Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin's younger sister was nominated head of the party's national list and will contend for the role of Prime Minister. One of the main issues of her campaign is national reconciliation.