It’s the wet season in Thailand. So far it’s been rain and lightning for the last 3 days here in Bangkok. Not that it has been torrential pouring, more like frequent but brief spells. The real storm of course is the political one that is going to reach a climax within the next few days. I spoke with Mr. Chavarong Limpattamapanee, the President of the Thai Journalists Association to discuss a few possible post-election scenarios. Essentially it comes down whether the populist Peua Thai Party lead by the photogenic Yingluck will get enough support to have a majority government, that is, winning more than 250 of the possible 500 seats. Peua Thai is already expected to win the most seats, but that’s out of 40 (that’s right 40) political parties, and many of the minor parties are more likely to form a coalition government with Abhisit’s democrats.
Being the most popular party doesn’t necessarily mean Yingluck will be Prime Minister, it would more likely mean a hung parliament and some serious negotiations in which the minor parties will play a vital role.
Peau Thai getting the majority would mean the smoothest road to government, unless of course the army decides otherwise and throws another one of their world famous coups – or the Yellow shirts rising up in mass protest like the last time the Reds won.
The latter scenario is unlikely as the Yellow shirts have fragmented into near irrelevance this time round. Their ‘No Vote’ campaign (pictured) is amusing but is seen as unhelpful by most of the population. Rightly so, the yellows asking people to vote 'No' (as opposed to not voting at all) to express their anger at the government is not going to solve Thailand's problems.
The army though remains the real threat to Yingluck and the Reds. So far they have said they will do nothing and respect the law. The problem is that the law and the interpretations of it is a point of contention it itself.
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